OUR WORLD
CONVEXWORLD
A new way of investing
CONVEXWORLD MODEL
CONVEXWORLD model is based on an algorithmic which generates outputs in binary code.
CONVEXWORLD model analyzes data starting from 30th September 1968 confronting only two variables: gold spot price and SP&500 end of day close price.
CONVEXWORLD model generates only one way signal:
LONG GOLD or LONG EQUITY
Following is a matrix of the outputs generated by the model starting from 1968.
CONVEXWORLD model has generated 10 signals. Last one, started on 31st December 2015, is LONG GOLD.
1) there are 5 signals GOLD ON and 5 signals EQUITY ON: 290 months in GOLD ON versus 285 months in EQUITY ON; only 5 months difference in 50 years track record.There is a hidden logic in the markets.
2) each signal has a different time span: the shortest is 1 year, the longest 13 years. On average, the model is invested for 4 years. Thereare no negative signals, ranging from +0,1% (1994-1995) to +284% (1981-1994). In GOLD ON, total profit is higher (785%) than EQUITY ON (529%).
3) the worst equities drawdowns are in GOLD ON as in 1973/1974 (-50%), in 2001/2002 (-50%) and in 2008/2009 (-60%). CONVEXWORLD model has been able to avoid the largest and most devastating equities drawdowns!!
4) the worst gold drawdowns are in EQUITY ON as in 1981/1985 (-50%), in 1996/1999 (-40%) and in 2013/2015 (-45%). CONVEXWORLD model has been able to avoid the largest and devastating gold drawdown!! So keep alert investing in gold while in EQUITY ON !
5) not only the model avoided the most devastating equities drowdawns, in those years the model, being invested in gold, gained in 1973/1974 (+190%), in 2001/2002 (+30%) and in 2008/2009 (+45%).
6) the model correctly picked the minimum area in S&P500 in 1981, right at the beginning of the the longest equity bull market (Shiller P/E of 7), for 13 years, until 1994, with a total gain of 294%!
In CONVEXWORLD works a team of people with an average of 20 years financial experience.
CONVEXWORLD track record.
Every signal is showned graphically below.
LONG GOLD: from September 30,1968 to September 30,1975
LONG SP500: from September 30,1975 to September 30,1977
LONG GOLD: from September 30,1977 to September 30,1981
LONG SP500: from September 30,1981 to March 31,1994
LONG GOLD: from March 31,1994 to March 31, 1995
LONG SP500: from March 31, 1995 to September 29, 2000
LONG GOLD: from September 29, 2000 to December 31, 2003
LONG SP500:from December 31, 2003 to December 31, 2004
LONG GOLD
:
from December 31, 2004 to December 31, 2012 LONG SP500: from December 31, 2012 to December 31, 2015
Copyright Convexworld 2016
